{"id":6959,"date":"2020-05-04T16:18:52","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T09:18:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yhoccongdong.org\/du-an-khac\/2020\/05\/04\/co-bao-nhieu-nguoi-nhiem-virus-sars-cov-2-ngoai-kia\/"},"modified":"2024-03-17T05:53:08","modified_gmt":"2024-03-16T22:53:08","slug":"co-bao-nhieu-nguoi-nhiem-virus-sars-cov-2-ngoai-kia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yhoccongdong.com\/du-an-khac\/co-bao-nhieu-nguoi-nhiem-virus-sars-cov-2-ngoai-kia\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi nhi\u1ec5m virus SARS-CoV-2 ngo\u00e0i kia?"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3: BS. Wynn Tran, Los Angeles, Hoa K\u1ef3<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Trong t\u00e2m d\u1ecbch Covid-19 t\u1ea1i New York City, m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m 215 b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n s\u1ea3n khoa t\u1ea1i b\u1ec7nh vi\u1ec7n Columbia Irving Medical Center \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u00e0ng l\u1ecdc xem c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec5m virus hay kh\u00f4ng. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y 13.5% b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n nhi\u1ec5m virus kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng (asymptomatic) v\u00e0 1.9% b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n nhi\u1ec5m virus c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng (1).<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, \u0111a s\u1ed1 b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n nhi\u1ec5m virus trong \u0111\u1ee3t s\u00e0ng l\u1ecdc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng l\u00e2m s\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ed1t, ho, hay kh\u00f3 th\u1edf. L\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 \u0111a s\u1ed1 b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ec1u tr\u1ebb (\u0111ang trong \u0111\u1ed9 tu\u1ed5i mang thai). D\u1ef1a v\u00e0o nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y, r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n tr\u1ebb ngo\u00e0i kia kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec5m virus SARS-CoV-2.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi l\u00e0 c\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngo\u00e0i kia b\u1ecb nhi\u1ec5m virus m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft?<\/p>\n

Cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 test kho\u1ea3ng 3.3 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng h\u00f4 h\u1ea5p hay r\u1ee7i ro cao, trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u00ecm ra g\u1ea7n 680,000 m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh Covid-19 v\u00e0 34,000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ebft (t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u1eed vong \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh l\u00e0 5%).<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c b\u00e1c s\u0129 t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Stanford t\u00ednh to\u00e1n con s\u1ed1 m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh Covid-19 th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 cao r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n con s\u1ed1 680,000 t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u1eed vong th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a b\u1ec7nh n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, \u1edf m\u1ee9c b\u1ec7nh c\u00fam m\u00f9a, trong b\u00e0i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch g\u1eedi l\u00ean b\u00e1o Wall Street Journal (2)(3).<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c con s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb nhi\u1ec5m th\u1eadt s\u1ef1, 2 b\u00e1c s\u0129 t\u1eeb Stanford \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 nhi\u1ec5m virus SARS-CoV-2 trong c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u00dd, v\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3. V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 31 th\u00e1ng 1, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc g\u1eedi m\u00e1y bay \u0111\u1ebfn V\u0169 H\u00e1n mang c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n v\u1ec1 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ly h\u1ecd trong 14 ng\u00e0y, l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 m\u1eafc virus SARS-CoV-2 trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u00e1ch ly l\u00e0 0.9%. N\u1ebfu l\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 m\u1eafc virus chung c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 t\u1ea1i V\u0169 H\u00e1n, n\u01a1i c\u00f3 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 20 tri\u1ec7u, th\u00ec con s\u1ed1 m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 kho\u1ea3ng 178,000, g\u1ea5p 30 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 t\u1eed vong, v\u00ec v\u1eady, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 10 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf (3). M\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kh\u00e1c t\u1ea1i \u00dd, l\u00e0ng V\u00f2 t\u1ec9nh Padue, h\u1ecd test t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong l\u00e0ng (kho\u1ea3ng 3,300 ng\u01b0\u1eddi) v\u00e0 t\u00ecm ra 90 ng\u01b0\u1eddi nhi\u1ec5m virus (2.7%). C\u00e1c b\u00e1c s\u0129 Stanford \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n t\u1ec9nh Padue c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 26,000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi nhi\u1ec5m so v\u1edbi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o 198 ca, g\u1ea5p 130 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 h\u1ecd suy ra t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u1eed vong th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 t\u1ea1i \u00dd do virus n\u00e0y th\u1ea5p, kho\u1ea3ng 0.06% h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi 8% th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kh\u00e1c t\u1eeb Ireland c\u0169ng cho k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, cho th\u1ea5y kho\u1ea3ng 1% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 nhi\u1ec5m virus n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y, hai b\u00e1c s\u0129 tr\u00ean \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng con s\u1ed1 nhi\u1ec5m virus SARS-CoV-2 t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i m\u1ed7i 3 ng\u00e0y. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 1 th\u00e1ng 1 \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 9 th\u00e1ng 3 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 6 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 nhi\u1ec5m virus n\u00e0y, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean con s\u1ed1 t\u1eed vong 499 ng\u00e0y 9 th\u00e1ng 3, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u1eed vong t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 0.01% (t\u00ednh lu\u00f4n 2 tu\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec5m v\u00e0 m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh), th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 c\u00fam m\u00f9a 0.1%.<\/p>\n

D\u0129 nhi\u00ean c\u00e1ch \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh n\u00e0y c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u01b0a thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c v\u00ec d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 m\u1ed7i n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c gi\u00e0 tr\u1ebb kh\u00e1c nhau, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 m\u1eafc, nhi\u1ec5m, v\u00e0 truy\u1ec1n b\u1ec7nh kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, t\u1ea1i Los Angeles, m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u1eeb b\u1ec7nh vi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc USC cho th\u1ea5y kho\u1ea3ng 5% ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng nhi\u1ec5m tr\u00f9ng h\u00f4 h\u1ea5p khi \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u00f2ng c\u1ea5p c\u1ee9u l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec5m SARS-CoV-2 (4). T\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 500 tri\u1ec7u l\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u00e1m b\u00e1c s\u0129 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m cho c\u00e1c tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng nhi\u1ec5m tr\u00f9ng h\u00f4 h\u1ea5p v\u1edbi t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 2.5 l\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec5m b\u1ec7nh m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, hay 100-200 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi nhi\u1ec5m tr\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f4 h\u1ea5p (5). V\u1edbi t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 5% b\u1ec7nh n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 do Covid-19, con s\u1ed1 \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 5 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi nhi\u1ec5m virus SARS-CoV-2, cao g\u1ea5p 8 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi 680,000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean b\u00e1o c\u00e1o.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ebft v\u00ec Covid-19 t\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh n\u00ean t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u1eed vong c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i. New York City b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ebft t\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt, nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 l\u00fd do v\u00ec sao, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 v\u00ec Covid-19 nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 v\u00ec nh\u1eefng b\u1ec7nh kh\u00e1c. Theo c\u00e1c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ebft v\u00ec b\u1ec7nh tim m\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 ung th\u01b0 t\u1ea1i Hoa K\u1ef3 cao h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi Covid-19.<\/p>\n

S\u1eafp t\u1edbi, khi x\u00e9t nghi\u1ec7m di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd bi\u1ebft con s\u1ed1 th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 nhi\u1ec5m b\u1ec7nh l\u00e0 bao nhi\u00eau. M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 Covid-19 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ec7nh r\u1ea5t nguy hi\u1ec3m do t\u00ednh l\u00e2y lan m\u1ea1nh, \u00edt c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, v\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch ch\u1eefa tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (vaccine hay thu\u1ed1c).<\/p>\n

\"c\u00f3<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh 1.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"c\u00f3<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh 2.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"c\u00f3<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh 3.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o<\/h2>\n
    \n
  1. https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2009316?fbclid=IwAR0EbF4c1PiRQVoHuOYByPMlCILwv1TccOWedleF52rsW_5vEsoJkmyd7m0<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. https:\/\/fsi.stanford.edu\/news\/coronavirus-deadly-they-say?fbclid=IwAR1fV-7fwNrTq5FHxyv142HXS87O5JnUvihFzYDRBOIt9rsNcA9Z8b2RkCQ<\/a><\/li>\n
  3. https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?fbclid=IwAR0VRsU83suQtyYM6WjQEUibwT77yVFTb9f7f6IDGboPZKRsVwCPeN8gTFs<\/a><\/li>\n
  4. https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2764137?fbclid=IwAR193x7jUuEqU3_9yytkgJm_zbiDHRGz1VtmUTrcVMM_osHqcURQDsedfgk<\/a><\/li>\n
  5. https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamainternalmedicine\/fullarticle\/215118?fbclid=IwAR2OUQ0tWAwCEmd1GgVQ14c5rE1nQt_rcm_fRnDPcv64Cbq-FwoDe90dNVc<\/a><\/li>\n
  6. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/huynhtranmd\/posts\/10157983883336183<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u0110a s\u1ed1 b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n nhi\u1ec5m virus trong \u0111\u1ee3t s\u00e0ng l\u1ecdc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng l\u00e2m s\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ed1t, ho, hay kh\u00f3 th\u1edf. 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